Comparing the Impact of Wind Power and Solar Power Investment on Industrial Development: Application of Dynamic Energy Industry-related Models

Taiwan’s energy transformation to change the power structure is a new energy policy for economic development, industrial upgrading and environmental preservation. This study investigates the possibility of evaluating the economic spillover effects and CO 2 emissions to evaluate new energy policy objectives by investing in solar and wind power generation systems. The research results show that the short-term solar investment in economic effects is superior to wind power generation, and the economic spillover increases the scale of CO 2 emissions. The main reason is that the high ratio of equipment for wind power generation comes from imports and reduces the spillover effect. Observing the economic spillover effects of individual industries, solar investment has the largest increase in “Sewage Treatment Sector and Resource Recovery” sectors, while wind investment has the largest increase in “Machinery-related industries.” The scale of CO 2 emissions in individual industries, solar investment has increased the most emissions by “Chemical” sectors, and wind investment has increased by “Service industries.” However, from a long-term perspective, the industrial upgrading through economic restructuring and the low emission coefficient of wind power will greatly improve the economic spillover effect of wind investment and improve the environment.


INTRODUCTION
For a long time, Taiwan's power sources have relied mainly on thermal power generation, which accounts for more than 80% of the total power supply, with coal-fired power accounting for the majority. Under such a power structure, Taiwan's economic development has also created a high degree of economic growth for 30 years. Entering the economic situation of Taiwan in the 1990s, the production bases of traditional industries moved to Southeast Asia, China and other regions, and the loss of large amounts of capital has greatly reduced domestic investment, and Taiwan faces industrial hollowing out.
In 2002, Taiwan joined the WTO's world trade system, which represents the challenge of facing a larger international market in a liberalized economy. The world's "financial tsunami" broke out in 2008, and the Taiwan economy suffered major damage (Hong and Li, 2015). The export recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 was nearly 40%. This series of international economic environment and world financial events have made Taiwan must rethink industrial restructuring and energy policy, because these are closely related to the competitiveness of Taiwan's industrial market and deeply affect future economic development. In 2017, Taiwan proposed a new energy policy to try to solve the long-term industrial restructuring and develop a new economic growth model. The goal of the new energy policy is to replace thermal power generation with renewable energy, and to promote economic investment by investing in high-tech This Journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License industries in a way that energy transformation changes the power supply structure.
Taiwan is surrounded by the subtropical monsoon climate and has some renewable energy development conditions, among which the natural conditions of solar energy and wind power are the best. Due to the different investment industries of different renewable energy sources, the cost of construction costs is not the same, so the economic spillover effect will be different. In addition, the difference in solar power and wind power generation will have different environmental impacts, so the scale of CO 2 emissions will also vary.
Since 2017, renewable energy development has become Taiwan's new energy policy. The policy goal of Taiwan's energy transformation is to adjust the power source structure. It also hopes that investment in renewable energy will drive economic growth and industrial upgrading, and create employment opportunities. The research purpose of this study will be to compare the economic spillover effects of solar and wind system investments with the scale of CO 2 emissions, and conclude the assessment of renewable energy in Taiwan's energy policy. In order to evaluate the above research purposes, this paper uses the dynamic industry-associated spillover model for the estimation of economic spillovers, and the dynamic energy industry correlation model for the estimation of CO 2 emissions.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Investment can really drive economic development (Hong and Li, 2015), but economic development has also led to an increase in energy consumption (Wolde-Rufael, 2010, Paul and Uddin, 2011, Karhan, 2019. The question that follows is whether the environment can continue to be protected. When analyzing economic growth and environmental improvement, many documents solve the problems between the two through investment and technology improvement. Omer (2008) analyzes the contribution to climate change by reducing energy consumption. Stram (2016) believes that investing in renewable solar and wind power renewable penetrations can reduce direct pollution and CO 2 emissions. Tang et al. (2016) analyzed the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Vietnam during the period 1976-2010. The research results indicate that energy consumption is not a limiting factor for economic growth in Vietnam's economic development experience. The study pointed out that energy conservation policies that reduce energy use to promote environmentally friendly development will not have a serious impact on economic growth. Hong et al. (2017) pointed out that investment R and D can also reduce CO 2 emissions in addition to economic spillover effects, and Hong and Yen (2019) analysis of renewable energy investment can drive urban industrial development and improve the environment. Ye et al. (2012) analyzed the feasibility of China's Hainan Island renewable energy investment. The study emphasizes that changes in power sources and the cost of renewable energy equipment will enable the economy to continue to develop and protect the natural environment. Apergis and Payne (2009) used the Central American data from 1980 to 2004 to analyze the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The study found that there is a causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the short term.
On the other hand, Bode et al. (2003) analyze the relationship between economic growth and gas emissions from the development of the tourism industry. The study emphasizes that the use of wind and solar energy can reduce damage to the environment and develop tourism. Solarin (2014) studies tourism development in Malaysia and explores the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions, including GDP, energy consumption, financial development and urbanization. The paper found that tourists are an important factor in pollution, but it is not possible to confirm the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth over a long period of time. Ozturk (2016) Analyzes tourism development from energy consumption, air pollution, health spending and economic growth. This study found a long-term correlation between energy consumption, environmental sustainability, economic growth and tourism indicators. Karhan (2019) stressed that the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth has become an important issue. The study points out the different causal relationships between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in different periods. The study by Kougias et al. (2019) argues that the deployment of renewable energy can reduce dependence on energy imports, reduce fiscal costs, and improve environmental pollution.

Data
Taiwan's new energy policy are plan "4-year wind power generation promotion plan" and the establishment of solar power system, the former set to complete 520 MW offshore wind power generation system in 2020, the latter plans to generate 25 billion kWh of annual power generation, solar energy It will be able to drive a total investment of NT$1, 200 billion (=US$40,000 million). This study compares the scale of investment in solar energy and wind power generation system with NT$100 billion (=US$3,333.33 million), and estimates the economic spillover effect and economic effect on CO 2 emissions from different renewable energy sources. The difference between the economic and environmental effects of a power generation system. Tables 1 and 2 represent the cost of building a solar and wind power system for US$3,333.33 million, respectively.
From the perspective of raw material supply for renewable energy, solar energy and wind power related industries have different supply chain relationships in Taiwan. The domestic self-sufficiency rate of solar energy systems is relatively high, and it is almost possible to supply related equipment by domestic enterprises. However, the development of motor systems for wind power generation in Taiwan is relatively slow and must rely on imports, which will affect the economic effects and the scale of CO 2 emissions.

Methodology
In order to estimate the effects of the energy-generating power sector, the study expands the power sector of the industry-related Table. The new industry-related Table will include various types of renewable energy sources, such as nuclear power, firepower, hydropower, solar energy, and wind power, as shown in Table 3.
The production quantity decision model of the industry-related production function is as follows: In addition, the production function of the electric power sector can be expressed by (2).

12
: i sector investment in k sector X k

22
: Power sectors input to k sector a ik 12 : i sector input coefficient for k sector a k

22
: Power sectors input coefficient to k sector.
When the formulas (1) and (2) are expressed in the horizontal direction, the original sectors and the power sectors can be written as (3) and (4) respectively.
Where, A 11 : Square matrix with a ij 11 as the element (n × n) A 12 : Vector with a ik 12 as the element (n × 5) A 21 : Vector with a j 21 as the element (1 × n) A 22 : Vector with a k 22 as the element (1 × n) F 1 : Final demand vector for the industrial sector (n × 1)W f 2 : Final demand vector for the power sector (1 × 1) X 1 : Production vector of the industrial sector (n × 1) x 2 : Production vector of the power sector (n × 1) Z k : Vector with Z 1~Z5 as the element (5 × 5).
Refer to Hong et al. (2017) to establish a dynamic model of capital endogenous, as shown in (13).
( ) Where K is a matrix of capital coefficients, I is a unit matrix, and D = I−A−C. A and C represent the input coefficient matrix and the consumption matrix, respectively. On the other hand, this paper only estimates the increase in CO 2 emissions from the economic spillover effect of the investment. When calculating the CO 2 emission amount of each power generation method in the power sector, the equation (14) can be used.
Where E is the total emission of CO 2 ; e x represents the emission coefficient of the unit output of the non-power sector; e z represents the emission coefficient of the unit output of the power sector.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS
This section will estimate the economic spillover effects of solar and wind investments, as well as the scale of CO 2 emissions from the economic effects of both investments. The empirical results are as follows in Sections 4.1 and 4.2.

Compare the Economic Effects of Solar and Wind Power System Investments
First, from Table 4, the economic spillover effect of investing in solar power systems is US$5205.90 million, of which the company's gross induced added value is US$1634.14 million, and the related  We can also observe from individual industries, as shown in Table 5. The increase in production-induced value of solar investment is mainly based on the economy of "Sewage Treatment Sector and Resource Recovery Sector" (US$752.14 million), "Service-related Sector" (US$584.97 million) and "Electric Machine Sector" (US$482.08 million). The most effective effect, and the biggest economic effect of the "Sewage Treatment Sector and Resource Recovery Sector" is that the solar-related materials need to be recycled.
In addition, the industry with the largest gross induced added value is "Service-related Sector," with a total revenue of US$361.32 million, followed by "Sewage Treatment Sector and Resource Recovery Sector" of US$268.74 million. In the induced income of employment, the total increase of "Service-related Sector" increased by US$258.15 million.
On the other hand, the economic effects of wind investment are shown in Table 6. The production-induced value has increased by US$4524.19 million in total. From the perspective of individual industries, "Machinery-related industries" is the most, accounting for US$2,031.09 million. Followed by US$1553.00 million for service sectors. The economic effect of gross induced added value and induced income of employment is still the largest in

Comparing Co 2 Emissions from Investments in Solar and Wind Power Systems
Investment creates a variety of economic spillover effects, but it also increases CO 2 emissions. This section will analyze the economic creation process of investing in solar energy and wind power, and different industries will increase CO 2 emissions at different levels. Table 7 shows the increase in CO 2 emissions from various industries investing in solar energy. In the productioninduced value creation process, the "Chemical Sector" increased the maximum CO 2 emissions (369,200.60 tons) more than half of the total. This situation also found an increase in CO 2 emissions in the gross induced added value and the induced income of employment. Table 8 shows the increased CO 2 emissions from the wind power investment process. The increase in production-induced value of total CO 2 emissions is 1,046,479.86 tons, with the highest emissions from "Service industries" followed by "Chemical industries." In addition, the company's gross induced added value is still the most popular in terms of CO 2 emissions from "Service industries," followed by "Machinery-related industries." The CO 2 emissions in the induced income of employment are also the most in "Service industries" and "Machinery-related industries."

CONCLUDING REMARKS
The empirical results in Section 4 can be organized as Table 9 and Table 10. Table 9 found that the production-induced value of solar investment is about 1.15 times that of wind power, but the effect of the company's gross induced added value is only 0.98. The increase in labor income of related industries engaged in investment is greater than that of the solar industry, which is about 1.04 times that of wind power systems. Table 10 shows the CO 2 emissions from solar power and wind power investment. In comparison, wind investment CO 2 emissions are larger. The CO 2 emissions produced by solar energy in production-induced value, gross induced added value and induced income of employment are only 0.58, 0.22 and 0.25 for wind power, respectively.
The above analysis shows that the short-term wind power generation has less economic benefits. The main reason is that in addition to the industrial differences, a large part of the equipment and materials need to be imported, and the technical level of solar energy production technology is relatively mature. If after longterm industrial adjustment, the wind power related industries will be able to increase the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic industry, and then the economic benefits will increase.
From the comparison of economic effects and environmental improvement, the current industrial structure estimation results show that the investment in solar power generation systems is superior to wind power generation. However, considering the adjustment and upgrading of the industry, the low emission coefficient of CO 2 for wind power generation will likely establish better economic effects and environmental conditions. Renewable energy politics shoulders the multiple tasks of   economic development, industrial upgrading and environmental protection. This will be an important policy implication of energy transformation.