Analyzing the Impact of Causal Factors on Political Management to Determine Sustainability Policy under Environmental Law: Enriching the Covariance-based SEMxi Model

Abstract

This research aims to develop a causal relationship model on political management for sustainability policy formation under Thai environmental law by applying the best and valid model with a non-spurious property called the Covariance-based on Structural Equation Model with exogenous variables (Covariance-based SEMxi Model). This newly-developed model is in distinction with any past models as it is made effectively applicable to any sectors across areas. The model can also be utilized to design a long-term forecasting model with the ability to determine appropriate future scenarios. When assessing the covariance-based SEMxi model performance, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) are estimated at 1.19% and 1.30%, respectively, in comparison of other models, including Gray-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (GM-ARIMA), Gray Model (GM), Back Propagation Neural Network (BP), Artificial Neural Natural Model (ANN), and Multiple Regression Model (MR). As for the results, this research reveals a direct impact of economic factors on environmental and social factors. In the meanwhile, social factors have a direct impact on environmental and economic factors. The research also indicates a direct effect on the environment with a maximal magnitude of 67%. Whereas a direct effect of social factors on the environment is detected at the magnitude of 55%. These effects are perceived to exceed the specified carrying capacity set by Thailand. In addition, a causal relationship is observed between economic and social factors, where the environment is found with the lowest error correction capability of only 5 percent. At the same time, economic and social factors are noticed with greater correction capability of 59% and 31%, respectively. This finding implies that the ecosystem will experience slow recovery whenever it deteriorates. Hence, the government must place a higher concentration on the environment, while different measures on environmental legislation should be closely controlled to contain any future damage. Besides, energy consumption must be managed not to exceed the established carrying capacity by simultaneously implementing both proactive and reactive measures. This process can be strengthened by optimizing the newly-introduced model produced by this work for a scenario design in policy management to attain sustainability.