Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy


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Authors

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX 79968-0543 USA
  • George Novela Load Forecast and Planning Unit El Paso Electric Company P.O. Box 982 El Paso, TX 79960 USA
  • David Torres Research and Planning Department El Paso Water Utilities 1154 Hawkins Boulevard El Paso, TX 79925 USA
  • Adam G. Walke Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX 79968-0543 USA

Abstract

El Paso Electric Company (EPEC) is the sole commercial electricity provider for two metropolitan economies in the southwestern desert region of the United States: El Paso, Texas and Las Cruces, New Mexico.  A publicly traded corporation, EPEC employs a structural econometric system of equations model to forecast energy sales for various customer classes. Although the modeling system has provided reliable inputs to annual corporate planning efforts at EPEC, its historical track record has not previously been formally assessed for forecast accuracy. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to evaluate the EPEC model's forecasting performance.  Results indicate that accurate prediction of electricity usage in this service area is an elusive target. Those results are similar to what has been documented for other regional economic variables.Keywords: Energy forecasting, Statistical tests, Forecast accuracy evaluationJEL Classifications: Q47; M21; R15

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Author Biographies

Thomas M. Fullerton, Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX 79968-0543 USA

Tom Fullerton is a Professor of Economics in the College of Business Administration at the University of Texas at El Paso where he also holds the Chair for the Study of Trade in the Americas.  Dr. Fullerton teaches graduate and undergraduate courses in econometrics, managerial economics, urban economics, and border economics.  Fullerton holds degrees from UTEP, Iowa State University, University of Pennsylvania, and University of Florida.

George Novela, Load Forecast and Planning Unit El Paso Electric Company P.O. Box 982 El Paso, TX 79960 USA

George Novela is a Corporate Energy Economist with El Paso Electric Comapny.  Mr. Novela was previously an Economist with the City of El Paso.  He completed his graduate studies in Economics at the University of Texas at El Paso.  Mr. Novela has previously published resarch in the area of international manufacturing forecast accuracy.

David Torres, Research and Planning Department El Paso Water Utilities 1154 Hawkins Boulevard El Paso, TX 79925 USA

David Torres is a Senior Economist at El Paso Water Utilities.  Mr. Torres was previously a Corporate Energy Economist with El Paso Electric Company.  He completed his graduate studies in Economics at the University of Texas at El Paso.  Mr. Torres has previously published research in the area of emprical exchange rate analysis.

Adam G. Walke, Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX 79968-0543 USA

Adam Walke is a Research Economist at the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project.  Mr. Walke completed his graduate studies in Economics at the University of Texas at El Paso.  He has previously published research in the areas of transportation econmomics, energy economics, business cycle dynamics, currency markets, and economic growth.

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Published

2015-07-13

How to Cite

Fullerton, T. M., Novela, G., Torres, D., & Walke, A. G. (2015). Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(3), 738–745. Retrieved from https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/1192

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