Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran's Energy Consumption and Supply

Authors

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei Department of Statistics, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. & Department of Economics Energy, Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES), (Affiliated to Ministry of Petroleum)
  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori Department of Statistics, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Grey theory deals with systems that are characterized by poor information or for which information is lacking. This study presents an improved grey GM (1, 1) model, using a technique that combines residual modification with Markov Chain model. We use energy consumption and supply of Iran to test the accuracy of proposed model. The results show that the Markov Chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results. 

Keywords: Grey Forecasting Model; Markov Chain; Energy System

JEL Classifications: C15; C53; C63

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Author Biography

Shaghayegh Kordnoori, Department of Statistics, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

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Published

2012-04-28

How to Cite

Mostafaei, H., & Kordnoori, S. (2012). Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran’s Energy Consumption and Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(3), 97–102. Retrieved from https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/167

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