The Impact of Global Oil Prices on Economic Performance

Abstract

Oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations over the past four decades, impacting the economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study empirically investigates the effect of oil price fluctuations (OPF) on economic growth, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), production levels (PL), and employment (EMP), covering the period 1990–2020, including the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and post-2020 oil market volatility. Quantitative data were collected through a structured questionnaire distributed to a representative sample of 600 economic experts and financial analysts across Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar. Pearson correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted using SPSS. The results indicate statistically significant negative correlations between OPF and economic growth across all three dimensions, with GDP being the most affected, followed by EMP and PL. These findings highlight the importance of economic diversification and industrialization strategies to mitigate the effects of oil price volatility and provide insights relevant to energy market policy and economic planning under conditions of global oil market uncertainty.