Climate Vulnerability, Green Transition and Sustainable Development in Africa: Evidence from KRLS and PCSE Models

Abstract

Climate change constrains sustainable development in Africa, but the effects of transition policies depend on whether they improve energy access, productivity, and resilience. This study examines how energy productivity and renewable energy consumption moderate the climate stress-development relationship in 43 African countries from 2000 to 2024. Sustainable development is measured using the SDG Index and Human Development Index, while climate stress is captured by climate vulnerability and carbon emissions. Kernel Regularized Least Squares and panel-corrected standard errors are applied. Results show that climate vulnerability consistently weakens development outcomes. Energy productivity improves development and reduces the adverse effect of vulnerability, whereas renewable energy shares produce mixed outcomes because they often reflect traditional biomass rather than modern energy. Effects vary across income groups, with stronger vulnerability penalties in poorer countries. Policies should prioritise reliable modern energy, productive energy use, clean cooking, and targeted resilience investment rather than aggregate renewable energy shares alone.