Future Scenarios and Trends of Energy Demand in Colombia using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning

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  • Andres F. Paez Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga
  • Yecid Muñoz Maldonado Universidad Autónoma De Bucaramanga
  • Adalberto Ospino Castro Universidad de la Costa
  • Nelson Hernandez
  • Emanuel Conde
  • Leonardo Pacheco
  • William Gonzalez
  • Oscar Sotelo


The prospective of Colombia's energy demand will be defined by economic, social, cultural and political phenomena. Modeling the factors that determine demand can be broadly divided into quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative phenomena, demography, energy efficiency and the direct consumption of fuels; qualitative effects are specific conditions, which are defined within each scenario as variables that will have effects on quantitative phenomena. In the baseline scenario, the transportation sector is expected to remain as the largest representative of Colombia's energy demand, although its participation in the year 2050 will be reduced by approximately 7%. The residential sector will have a reduced growth supported by the law 1715 that will increase distributed generation and implement more efficient lighting systems. A scenario focused on energy diversification shows a reduction in demand since the short term. Transport sector is maintained with similar behaviors in all scenarios as the goods transport networks keep the same. Keywords: Energy Prospective, Energy Demand, Economic & Energy. JEL Classifications: Q47, Q41, Q50


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How to Cite

Paez, A. F., Maldonado, Y. M., Castro, A. O., Hernandez, N., Conde, E., Pacheco, L., Gonzalez, W., & Sotelo, O. (2017). Future Scenarios and Trends of Energy Demand in Colombia using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 178–190. Retrieved from https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/5390